On September 16, 2025, a devastating fire broke out in the “hot mill” area of a critical aluminum sheet manufacturing facility owned by Novelis in Oswego, New York. This plant supplies nearly 40% of the aluminum used by U.S. automakers, including Ford, Stellantis, Toyota, and others. The fire’s impact has caused cascading production stoppages and slowdowns across multiple automakers, with Ford bearing the most significant disruptions due to its extensive use of aluminum in key vehicles.
Production Stops & Slowdowns
- Ford F-150 Production: The fire led Ford to cut F-150 production by over half, with assembly at the Dearborn Truck Assembly facility limited to about 530 trucks per day through late October 2025, down 55% from normal operations. The F-150, America’s best-selling vehicle, heavily relies on aluminum to reduce weight and optimize towing performance.
- Ford Expedition & Lincoln Navigator: Both large SUVs, assembled in Louisville, Kentucky, have had production idled for two weeks due to aluminum component shortages. The electric F-150 Lightning production is also suspended indefinitely.
- Stellantis Plants: In Michigan, Stellantis paused production at the Warren Truck Assembly Plant, home to Jeep Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer models, for three weeks. The automaker is focusing its aluminum supply on Ram 1500 production in Toledo, Ohio, to mitigate the impact.
Financial Impact & Supply Chain Challenges
Evercore ISI analysts estimate the plant closure and aluminum shortage could cost Ford between $500 million and $1 billion in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT). Ford’s stock dropped approximately 6% after the incident.
The Oswego plant’s hot mill, being the largest of its kind in North America, is unlikely to resume operations before the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Ford and other automakers are scrambling for alternative aluminum suppliers, but domestic excess capacity is minimal, and importing aluminum from abroad is costly due to U.S. tariffs up to 50%.
Middle East Market Relevance
Ford’s heavy reliance on aluminum, especially for models popular in the Middle East such as the F-150, explains the global ripple effects of this localized supply interruption. Given the importance of lightweight materials in enhancing fuel efficiency and performance, the shortage could delay deliveries and constrain dealership inventory in regions including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and neighboring Gulf countries, where Ford’s pickups and SUVs enjoy strong sales.
Conclusion
The September 2025 fire at Novelis’s Oswego plant has exposed vulnerabilities in the automotive supply chain, causing significant production halts and financial losses for Ford and others. With the main facility offline until early 2026, Ford is bracing for a prolonged aluminum shortage expected to impact F-Series trucks and SUVs severely.
Middle Eastern buyers awaiting new Ford pickups and SUVs should expect potential delays while the company navigates supply complexities. Ford’s proactive collaboration with alternative suppliers and investment in supply chain resilience will be pivotal in mitigating longer-term disruptions.
